2023 Outlook
- Revenues for Vicon Industries, based on current demand, expected to increase by 16% given the launch of its AI based analytics solution, improvements to Valerus and additional sales
- Potential for AIS to expand by 3% to $21.8M along with strong growth in the Industrial Services market
- Substantial increase in gross margin driven by several organizational improvements
- Anticipate operating income at the company level to improved markedly by 78% to a loss of ~$(2.0)M
- With~$10.0M in cash and a dramatic reduction in expenses, expected to have sufficient capital in the near term to focus on executing on roadmap both fi-nan-cially and operationally without the need for additional capital
Find The Company Presentation And Sources Here.
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And as I mentioned above, CETX has several potential breakout catalysts of note. Check them out:
No. 1 CETX Potential Catalyst - A Strong $23 Target From Dawson James Signals Significant Upside Potential
In March, Jason Kolbert, an analyst with Dawson James Securities, reiterated his $23 target on CETX.
From Wednesday's closing valuation, that provides CETX with over 100% potential upside.
Here's some key highlights from the report:
Roughneck AI: Cemtrex – This is a Novel Edge-based Analytics Provide More Efficient Searches and Real Time, Meaningful Alarms. The advanced security technology and industrial services company released a new suite of AI-based analytics in an enhanced Vicon Roughneck AI Camera series, further improving its unified VMS platform for controlling video, access control, license plate recognition (LPR), and other integrated applications.
What is it? Vicon’s enhanced lineup of Roughneck AI Cameras and latest VMS release — Valerus 23.1 — combine to deliver powerful object classification, tracking, recording and forensic searching. Vicon’s Roughneck AI Cameras, with impressive features including advanced analytics, smart/adaptive IR, Starlight low-light technology, and -40° operating temps, now include built-in AI-based analytics. Vicon’s AI-based analytics intelligently identify people and vehicles to help customers perform more meaningful searches in Valerus and diminish nuisance alarms triggered by irrelevant motion. This tight integration between its enhanced cameras and Valerus further improves Vicon’s established position as an end-to-end solutions provider.
We See Vicon as the Future of Cemtrex: Vicon is a global leader in advanced security and surveillance technology designed to safeguard businesses, schools, municipalities, hospitals and cities across the world. The company specializes in engineering complete security solutions that simplify deployment, operation, and ongoing maintenance. A good example is the company’s four-in-one camera system that connects with one simple cable. The company today has over 10,000 installations and five decades of experience. The company typically operates in corrections (prisons), education, healthcare, government, law enforcement, property management, and a host of other applications. The Advanced Technologies segment generated approximately $29M in revenues for fiscal (Sept.) 2022. Management has guided to a 16% growth rate ($28M in fiscal 2023).
Advanced Industrial Services: This business includes rigging and Millwrighting, Process Piping, Electrical Services, Custom Fabrication, Transportation and Warehousing and Project Management. This unit generated approximately $21M in revenues for the fiscal (Sept.) year 2022. Management guided to nominal growth of 3% this year.
Valuation: We project our model out to 2032. We lower our discount rate from 30% to 15%. We apply this in our Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF), discounted EPS (dEPS), and Sum-ofthe-Parts (SOP) models. We use a fully diluted outyear share count assuming multiple raises. The result is equal-weighted and averaged and rounded to the nearest whole number to derive our 12-month projected price target of $23.0.
Read the full report here.
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No. 2 CETX Potential Catalyst - A Low Float Under 1Mn Shares Could Allow For Explosive Volatility
According to the Yahoo Finance website, CETX has a mind-blowing low float.
The website reports this profile to have approximately 711.26k shares in its float.
Why is that important? It's important on one crucial level. Volatility.
Could more positive company news in the first half of 2023 provide a near term spark?
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No. 3 CETX Potential Catalyst - A Multitude Of Bullish Triggered Technicals Could Signal Something Big On The Horizon
I'm telling you right now... Don't discount CETX's bullish technical indicators.
At close on Wednesday, CETX was displaying several triggered technical indicators across the short, medium term, and long term.
Here's the quick list from Barchart:
Short Term Indicators
- 20 Day Moving Average
- 20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator
- 20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator
- 20 - 200 Day MACD Oscillator
Medium Term Indicators
- 50 Day Moving Average
- 50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator
- 50 - 150 Day MACD Oscillator
- 50-200 Day MACD Oscillator
Long Term Indicators
- 100 Day Moving Average
- 150 Day Moving Average
- 200 Day Moving Average
The website also shares its all-important "Trend Seeker" composite indicator is triggered.
Watch these technicals closely this week.
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No. 4 CETX Potential Catalyst - New Vicon Order Helps Reconfirm Company's Revenue Growth Expectations
Cemtrex Announces Vicon End-to-End Security System Order for Next Generation Zero-Carbon Prison System in United Kingdom
$0.8Mn in Vicon Surveillance Equipment with Latest Smart Technologies to Better Protect Prisoners, Staff and Public
Brooklyn, NY, March 22, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Cemtrex Inc. (NASDAQ: CETX, CETXP), an advanced security technology and industrial services company, has received a $0.8Mn order through Vicon Industries for a new prison being built in the United Kingdom to install a full end-to-end system of Vicon’s surveillance products including hardware and software.
The new Category C prison, with cell space for 1,400 prisoners, has been designed to incorporate the latest smart technologies to better protect prisoners, staff and the public. It will also be the first new prison in the U.K. set to operate as zero-carbon in the future, with an all-electric design, solar panels, heat pumps and energy-efficient lighting systems.
The new system from Vicon will include state-of-the-art video surveillance security capabilities utilizing the Valerus Video Management System (VMS) and award-winning Roughneck cameras and servers. The Roughneck is a powerfully advanced, NDAA-compliant, camera lineup designed for effortless remote configuration, eliminating tedious and frustrating installations. This extensive line of vandal-resistant cameras provides models for every application, ranging from corner-mounted cameras for in-cell use and super-high resolution, hemispheric models that can capture every detail in larger spaces like mess halls and exercise yards. The order is expected to be shipped partially in the current quarter and into the following quarter. Details of the customer were not provided due to confidentiality agreements in place.
“We are delighted to garner another major enterprise, mission critical project with this full system order for Vicon’s surveillance solutions. From penitentiaries in the U.S. to the U.K., our internationally recognized brand Vicon keeps operations safe for prisoners, workers, and visitors,” said Saagar Govil, Chairman and CEO of Cemtrex. “The order also reaffirms our expectation for driving 16% revenue growth to $28Mn this year for Vicon. In the U.S and internationally, corrections facilities are increasingly focusing on deploying the latest and greatest technologies and our Valerus system is an example of that. Vicon’s full-featured video management systems are engineered to streamline every aspect of the security operation. We expect to see increasing demand as the corrections industry continues to in-vest into their operations in newer and more efficient technology."
Read the full article here.
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No. 5 CETX Potential Catalyst - Q1 Revenue Increase Paints Company In A Growth Oriented Light Early In 2023
Cemtrex Reports First Quarter 2023 Fi-nan-cial Results
Q1’23 Revenue Increased 27% to $12.0Mn, Security Segment Revenues Increased 61% to 7.0Mn in Q1’23
Gross Margin up 790 basis points to 42% in Q1’23
Management to Host Conference Call Today at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time
Brooklyn, NY, Feb. 14, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- - Cemtrex Inc. (NASDAQ: CETX, CETXP), an advanced security technology and industrial services company, has reported its fi-nan-cial and operational results for the first quarter ended December 31, 2022.
Key First Quarter FY 2023 and Subsequent Highlights
- Revenue for Q1’23 increased 27% to $12.0Mn, compared to revenue of $9.4Mn for Q1’22.
- Gross margin up 790 basis points to 42% in Q1’23 from 34% in the prior year quarter.
- Operating loss for Q1’23 declined 41% to $2.0Mn from $3.3Mn in Q1’22.
- Completed divestiture of non-core assets to focus on accelerating its Vicon and AIS brands, a transformative business restructuring that will result in approximately $6.2Mn in operating expense reduction to be realized going forward from Nov 2022.
- Announced a capitalization restructure, effecting a 1-for-35 reverse st-ock split.
- The Company’s common st-ock regained full compliance with the minimum bid price requirement for continued listing on The Nasdaq Capital Market.
- Received a $1.5Mn order through Vicon Industries, in January, from a current large border protection customer in Texas to expand its security technology system with new security solutions.
- Appointed Shane Compton as Chief Operating Officer of Vicon, a 20-year industry veteran who will lead operational growth, oversee sales and engineering, and spearhead efficiency initiatives.
- Cash and equivalents as of December 31, 2022 was $5.8Mn.
Management Commentary
Cemtrex Chairman and CEO, Saagar Govil, commented on the results: “The first quarter of fiscal year 2023 was highlighted by continued topline growth as we grew sales by 27% year over year. Additionally, the different steps we have taken operationally have led to a gross margin improvement of 790 basis points to 42%. We expect to see continued increases in our gross margin over the next couple quarters as we drive improvements in Vicon’s business. Overall operating income improved with the operating loss for the quarter declining by 41%. We are pleased with the progress we are making to drive better operational results since our shift in focus to our Vicon and Advanced Industrial Services (AIS) businesses. The substantial cost savings from the divestment of non-core assets and reduced expenses at the Cemtrex corporate level are now beginning to reflect more fully in our quarterly performance and will continue into the future."
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Read the full article here.
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CETX Recap - The Top 5 Potential Breakout Catalysts For This New Nasdaq Idea
No. 1 - A Strong $23 Target From Dawson James Signals Significant Upside Potential
No. 2 - A Low Float Under 1Mn Shares Could Allow For Explosive Volatility
No. 3 - A Multitude Of Bullish Triggered Technicals Could Signal Something Big On The Horizon
No. 4 - New Vicon Order Helps Reconfirm Company's Revenue Growth Expectations
No. 5 - Q1 Revenue Increase Paints Company In A Growth Oriented Light Early In 2023
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Coverage is officially initiated on CETX. When time permits, do this:
